The 2025–2026 RAM Crisis: Why Memory Prices Exploded and What Happens Next

What is the RAM crisis?

The RAM crisis is the global shortage of DRAM memory that began in the second half of 2025 and deepened through 2026. Memory makers prioritized AI data center products, leaving too little conventional DRAM for PCs, smartphones, consoles and embedded devices, and prices for every type of memory rose sharply.

DRAM is the working memory in almost every electronic device, from servers to Raspberry Pi boards. Three companies dominate production: in Q1 2026, Samsung held 38.5% of memory revenue, SK hynix 28.8% and Micron 22.4%, according to TrendForce. When those three change priorities, the whole market feels it.

Memory has always been cyclical — shortages and gluts follow each other every few years. What makes this episode different is its cause and scale. Earlier shortages came from demand spikes in PCs or phones. This one comes from a new class of buyer, AI infrastructure, that pays more per wafer and signs multi-year contracts. NAND flash, used in SSDs, has followed the same path a step behind.

Timeline of the RAM shortage

The shortage built through late 2025, exploded in Q1 2026 and has been easing in pace — not in level — since mid-2026.

Why did RAM prices explode? 6 causes

AI demand lit the fuse, but the shortage is the product of six factors acting together: HBM’s appetite for wafers, giant AI supply deals, long-term contracts, cuts to older memory, years of cautious investment, and the physical time it takes to build fabs.

1. HBM eats wafers

AI accelerators from Nvidia, AMD and others use high-bandwidth memory: stacks of DRAM dies bonded together next to the processor. HBM needs far more wafer area per bit than standard DDR5 — Micron has put the ratio at roughly three to one — because of larger dies, through-silicon vias and lower yields on tall stacks. Every wafer moved to HBM removes several times its bit-equivalent from the conventional market.

2. AI buyers lock up capacity

The Stargate agreements of October 2025 signaled the scale of AI demand: up to 900,000 wafers a month, against global capacity estimated at about 2.25 million. AI servers also need large amounts of ordinary DDR5 alongside HBM, so the pressure extends to standard server memory.

3. Long-term contracts shift the pain to everyone else

Several large US cloud providers signed multi-year agreements that cap the prices suppliers can charge them, according to TrendForce. Price increases therefore fall on buyers without such contracts — PC makers, phone brands, distributors and, at the end of the chain, consumers.

4. Older memory is being abandoned

To free advanced capacity, manufacturers cut wafers for DDR4 and other mature products. The effect has rippled down to DDR2, and some device makers now redesign products to use even older DDR3 or DDR2 chips simply to secure supply. Winbond, a supplier of these chips, says its capacity is sold out through 2027.

5. Investment was cut after the last crash

The 2022–2023 memory glut pushed prices below production cost and led makers to slash spending. Capacity added in 2024–2025 was modest, so the industry entered the AI boom with little slack. Newer process nodes also add fewer bits per wafer than older transitions did, so each new fab delivers less growth than before.

6. Fabs take years to build

A new DRAM fab takes about two years to build at Samsung, SK hynix or Micron, then several more quarters to qualify equipment and ramp output. Supply decisions made today show up in 2028. That lag is why even aggressive expansion cannot end the shortage quickly.

How much did RAM prices rise?

Chaining TrendForce’s quarterly figures, conventional DRAM contract prices at the end of 2026 are about four times their end-2025 level. Retail and spot prices rose even faster for some products.

Contract prices are what device makers pay suppliers; spot prices are short-term trades between distributors; retail prices are what you pay in a store. Retail data from WhereIsMyRAM via Capital & Compute; spot data from TrendForce/DRAMeXchange.

Short-term impact: Q4 2026 to mid-2027

Prices keep rising, but more slowly. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to climb another 10–15% in Q4 2026. Device prices stay high, entry-level products suffer most, and there is no sign of a reversal before mid-2027.

Prices: slower rises, no decline

The pace of increases has fallen from about 95% in Q1 2026 to a forecast 10–15% in Q4. That slowdown reflects buyer exhaustion and long-term contracts, not new supply. Enterprise SSDs are the one category where TrendForce expects price growth to accelerate, driven by bit demand growing more than 80% in 2026.

PCs and laptops: fewer units, higher prices

IDC counted 68.2 million PCs shipped in Q2 2026, down 4.9% year on year, while manufacturers raised prices faster than demand fell. Dell and HP both warned customers to expect higher prices. Expect base configurations with less RAM and SSD capacity, and higher prices for 32GB models.

Mini PCs: configured models cost more, barebones hold up

Memory and storage are a large share of a mini PC’s cost, so configured models rose fastest. Minisforum raised prices on models with RAM and SSD from November 2025 and left barebone models unchanged — a pattern other brands have followed. Machines with soldered LPDDR5X cannot be upgraded later, which makes the initial capacity choice more expensive. See our best mini PCs for local AI for how memory needs differ by use.

Smartphones: the low end breaks

Counterpoint reports smartphone shipments fell 11% in Q2 2026, the weakest second quarter since 2013, and now forecasts a 14% drop for 2026. Memory added about 25% to the bill of materials of low-end phones, against about 10% for premium models, so sub-$200 phones are hit hardest. Apple and Samsung, with scale and long contracts, gained share.

Graphics cards, consoles and boards

Graphics memory is also tight. Korean reports cited by TrendForce in January said memory had come to represent most of a GPU’s bill of materials and that Nvidia could cut mid-range output by 30–40%. TrendForce expects graphics DRAM prices to keep rising in Q4, with GDDR6 production being scaled back. Single-board computers are not spared: Raspberry Pi raised prices on 2GB to 16GB models by $10 to $60 in February 2026.

Medium-term impact: 2027 to 2028

2027 should remain tight: most capacity is already committed and new fabs only start contributing in the second half. Relief is most likely to begin in 2028, as Micron, SK hynix, Samsung and China’s CXMT bring new capacity online — unless AI demand absorbs it first.

2027: sold out before it starts

Micron says more than 75% of its 2027 production is already committed under customer agreements, with some talks extending to 2031. Winbond and CXMT also report capacity sold out through 2027. TrendForce expects server RDIMM bit supply to grow only 15–20% in 2027 and warns that PC DRAM supply could actually shrink as capacity shifts to servers. IDC places price stabilization in late 2027.

New fabs arrive, slowly

Even so, Micron says it has no visibility into when supply will catch up and expects only gradual improvement during 2028, because a growing share of new wafers will go to HBM.

China’s CXMT becomes a real alternative

CXMT is the wild card of the medium term. It could reach about 350,000 DRAM wafers a month by late 2026, close to Micron’s estimated 375,000, and builds fabs in roughly 12 months against 21–24 months for the big three. Dell, HP and Apple have reportedly secured supply. CXMT now makes mainstream DDR5 and LPDDR5X but lags in HBM, so its growth adds exactly the kind of memory consumers need. US policy is the main risk to that supply.

What it means for devices in 2027–2028

• PCs and mini PCs: prices stay high through 2027; 16GB remains the default and 32GB a premium option. Upgradeable SODIMM designs keep their value.
• Smartphones: slower spec growth; mid-range phones keep 8GB rather than moving to 12GB.
• Consoles and GPUs: mid-cycle price increases or delayed launches remain possible while GDDR7 supply is limited.
• Software: more pressure to optimize memory use, and more interest in running AI models efficiently on less RAM.

Long-term impact: 2029 and beyond

Prices will eventually fall as capacity catches up — memory has never stayed scarce forever. But the crisis is likely to leave lasting changes: higher average memory prices, a market organized around AI buyers, fewer consumer memory brands, and a larger role for Chinese suppliers.

How long can the shortage last?

Forecasts diverge. At Nvidia’s GTC conference in March 2026, SK Group chairman Chey Tae-won said wafer supply trails demand by more than 20% and the shortage could last four to five years, roughly until 2030. Samsung, by contrast, reportedly expects the current supercycle to lose momentum around 2028. Both views agree on one point: no return to 2024–2025 prices before 2028.

Structural changes likely to last

• A two-tier market. AI and cloud buyers on multi-year contracts at negotiated prices; everyone else on volatile quarterly pricing.
• Fewer consumer memory brands. Micron’s exit from Crucial shows that serving retail buyers is no longer a priority for top manufacturers. Expect a market led by module makers buying chips from others.
• A higher price floor. HBM’s wafer appetite and slower bit gains per node mean each gigabyte costs more to produce than in the last cycle, even in a downturn.
• China’s share grows. CXMT’s fast expansion could make Chinese DRAM a standard option for PC and phone makers, subject to trade policy.
• Design choices. More pressure on device makers to choose between soldered memory (cheaper, fixed) and modular formats such as SODIMM or LPCAMM2 that let buyers upgrade when prices fall.

The risk of a bust

Memory history is a series of booms followed by crashes. New capacity arriving in 2027–2028 could meet weaker demand if AI spending slows, financing costs rise or AI returns disappoint — a risk analysts flagged when SK hynix shares fell 11% in one day in July 2026. Manufacturers say they are aligning expansion with long-term demand rather than short-term prices to avoid repeating the post-pandemic glut. If a correction comes, consumer memory could become cheap again quickly.

Three scenarios for RAM prices

Our base case is high prices through 2027 and a gradual decline from 2028. Two alternatives frame the risks: a longer shortage driven by AI demand, or an earlier correction if AI spending slows.

The base-case price decline is our own estimate, based on past memory cycles and the capacity timelines above; it is not a supplier forecast.

What should buyers do during the RAM crisis?

If you need a computer now, buy it now — waiting for a crash is a bet against every major forecast. Buy only the memory you need, favor upgradeable designs, and use barebone mini PCs if you already own RAM.

1. Don’t wait for a price crash. No major forecaster expects consumer memory prices to fall meaningfully before 2028.
2. Right-size your RAM. 16GB covers office work, browsing and light creative use; choose 32GB for heavy multitasking, development or local AI.
3. Prefer SODIMM slots. A mini PC with standard slots lets you start with 16GB and upgrade cheaply after prices fall. Soldered memory locks in today’s price.
4. Consider barebone kits. If you have DDR5 SODIMMs from an old machine, a barebone mini PC avoids paying crisis prices twice.
5. Look at the used market. Used DDR4 and DDR5 modules from reputable sellers are often cheaper than new; test them before the return window closes.
6. Watch total price, not RAM alone. Some brands absorb part of the increase on full systems, which can make a complete mini PC cheaper than building one.

RAM crisis FAQ

How we built this analysis

This guide compiles contract price data and forecasts from TrendForce, shipment data from IDC and Counterpoint Research, and statements from Micron, SK Group, Samsung, Winbond and device makers, published between October 2025 and September 2026. Where we combine figures — such as the price index in the chart — we show the method. Scenario estimates are our own and labeled as such. We update this page each quarter when TrendForce publishes new forecasts.